THE PAST OR THE PRESENT

Do You trade the Present or Do You trade the Past?

Do you have any idea to go about it?

"Trade the Present" represent the idea of taking consecutive trade using todays factor.
From Fundamental and Technical, Sentiment and Intermarket Analysis, we will be able to create a trade setup.

"Trade the Past" bring means to trade using the past trend or lagging indicators ( whether historical price chart or technical indicators or even past sentiment"

Do you have any clue for these words?

To what i would like to discuss here is more to a setup that some trader use to place their trades in the currency market. Experience tells us that many traders were experiencing loss and profit using any setup ever made.
Just so the same as this setup , it experienced losses too.. to some extent that is even more larger losses but also larger profit.

1. The Fundamental ; are basic news that we catch everyday, the economic calendar reports,
Company's earnings and global financial news(though to some extent,political issues tend to affect environmental changes as well). Being able to interpret everyday news gives us knowledge at where the future price for currency might be.

2. The Technical ; are basic chart setup,reading. Most powerful tools used are a. Trendline b. Support c. Resistance. By plotting the chart well, understand shapes i.e. Double Top& Bottom,
Ascending & Descending Triangle, Wedges, Ranging or Flat or sideways trend, will provide a trader with awareness at where the price and the most important the Momentum to take place. In fact there are many more helpful indicators available.

3. The Intermarket ; are basic correlation between markets i.e. Currency Spot vs Equity Market vs Commodity Market vs Bond and Treasuries. Basically, Equity market tend to move in the opposite direction with bond market. While since this inverse relationships shows significant relative too in the negative relationship between the U.S dollar and Higher Yielding Currencies.
Normally, when Equity market skyrocket, Euro, GBP, NZd, Aud, Cad tend to jump as well..while the U.S dollar and bond market to lose ground. If trader are able to identify this condition in the financial market , then they can identify the supply and demand for any single currency. (trader can watch on the rising or dropping trend for any market as for instance) In addition to that, understanding the gang of Commodity currencies are also helpful for identifying the strenght of those currencies. i.e Aud for Gold, Cad for Crude Oil and Metals to go up, the Countries currency will have quite a support then. since those Commodity is U.S dollar denominated, when Oil and Gold jumps, dollar tends to lose ground.

4. The naughty Sentiment ; to most experienced traders, they find that this is the most naughty indicators out there. "Investors Hope" are the best words to describe what is "Sentiment" means. Where market bottom, investors always hope that market will go up since they can buy at dip while when market top, its the other way around. Just so everyone know, sentiment usually read the market in reverse direction to naked economic news. That is why sometimes we see the news influence to be quickly discounted by "something". Well we can call it a sentiment influence.
Where world financial is in the recession, Investors always hope for recovery (sometimes sucker rallies could happen too) when these recovery sentiment drives investor mad buying (as for instance; buy shares where market value drop below intrisic value). But still, traders must be
able to analyse the basic reading as DEBT-TO-EQUITY ratio, EARNINGs PerSHARE (EPS),supplies and demands, whether the excess earning report is due to expansion or emerged by just cost cutting action.




THE HIGH ODDS WINS


Before 1996, forex market is only opened for Financial institutions, commercial banks and large
hedgers and only affordable for large speculators merely. After Bill Clinton pave the way for us,
small traders for non commercials, we then add up into the market everyday ever since.
What it means here, we are still tiny in the large ocean. We have not yet to be belongs to this
market. They (the commercials) created this market, doing business transactions so still, the
price are largely determined by them (or affected by them mostly) even though we using the all
economic indicator available, we still cant win every hand. THE HIGH ODDS WINS. correct, just like poker,at least you can say that. Betting the high odds and you can consecutively profiting from the market.
Do not feel bad about it, it is just the beauty of the market. However, large traders and
commercials are required to register and so record on what position they took by the CFTC. And
Fortunately, traders can get access to this information since it is release on every weekend.
Therefore, traders at least, will be able to read how the GAME was played by these large
institutions and take that as a trend indicator. but still of course, traders must understand the
concept of the report where futures traded by commercials are inversely related with the today's
spot price action. but anyway thanks to Bill.

PRICE ACTION IS CHAOS.

In the end of the day, after exhausting analysis, tired and mad, traders find that price is going
somewhere opposites.Really not favorable. Feeling blind and angry,wondering if those exhausting hardworks of analysis they made is worth it when ended up frustating. If this ever or frequently happen to be one of you, don't feel bad about it. It is Normal. Every trader experience the same thing. Not because they are only average joes. Remember, even Soros have been there.
What traders need then, is a setup that can provide them this;
1. Making Pips
2. Keeping Pips
3. Repeat. (I know i take this quotes from babypips.com, i find this is true. credit goes to them then ;-) )

Then, be discipline and stick with that setup (really means setup with risk-reward ratio) That will do.

Until then. Good Luck Traders.

A New Energy or just Energy Left?

Hello again traders. Let us discuss the European, England and U.S some sentiment.
Attached are GBPUSD chart in 4 Hour TF. Back in the day (actually last week)
we were waiting to see the momentum of this pair. Since it has lost the upside momentum on the given Week TF, it is a pre-signal of bearish trend to develop + the 1.7000 critical resistance to upside breakout. We can tell technically it is bearish.
However, given opening week flowered by handsomely great and promising data especially from EUROPE region, this risky pair made bounce to climb back upwards at least for 233 pips.

Typically as we know, other major risky pairs tend to move in the same direction and opposite move to the dollar. Mentioned are EurUsd, AudUsd, NzdUsd and UsdCad.
GBP came with CPI y/y 0.3% better than expected to 1.8% (note that previous y.o.y figure was the same 1.8%) this data followed by RPI and Core CPI which too , better than expected.
However , the U.S data were in a quite bad figure at lower PPI. But just so everyone not to miss, the Long Term Purchase for U.S is at 90.7 Billion showing the demand for last period was overwhelming. Treasuries to prevail?...

In addition, the German ZEW economic sentiment increased to 56.1 from 45.2 which is even better than anybody would expect to have. this figure is very helpful in helping the Euro to stay above its support level 1.4055 (S1)(i take it on weekly TF). Somehow if it taken, the pair will become vulnerable to more downside move to area 1.3800

Overall view for the early session in this week is bullish fundamentally. but again, for many pairs that is now anticipated to further upside move, cautious is needed for they are still in the weekly resistance level (sTrong) and it is always possible to see more pattern discounting these pairs off the ground.

Now how do we perceive this scene here? with sales of U.S treasuries increasing, (means demand for secure assets) and again, Major Pairs are reaching near weekly strong resistance, (several week been around there slowing and losing momentum) thus technically we see possible bearish trend to develop. So Since we take dollar is trade by risk again and still not really fundamental as the trigger, most see USD is safe haven again. In addition of 'so like sucker rally' that occurred on the equity sides, its the possible equation :(taking into consideration the valuation stocks surpass earnings) + (excess earnings was resulted by cost-cutting 'thing' by companies) + (Fed to continue TALF) + (number of average 'no-job' joes) + purchase of treasuries to continue until October ;by FOMC meeting) + error =
H0; C.H.A.O.S price action in short term (consolidating, choppy, sideways)
H1; Bearish for Equity and Risky Currencies, dollar strengthen (take that Yen even more to overpower)

Apparently no Central Banks are expected to rise up rates although the rumours tell some banks around Europe might do that.do that? the Feds even continued to bailout let say 1.25 t..on last FOMC and when they did this, dollar demand was SKYROCKET (noted that Pound drop 500++pips after those announcement. What happened was the SENTIMENT for recovery was violated , was broken. Yet we are still have one idea in mind "we are going back to trade dollar based on fundamental strenght or weakness" and yet, it happened just for 1 night before these notion was quickly discounted on the other day ... so...
what do you as a trader,as speculator,as investor expect these banks will do?

"whos got needs, and whos got knowledge, then whos got nothing"

Beware of Trend Violation

this chart is representing GBPUSD in a weekly timeframe. there is a bullish candlestick for last month however it is seen that it is losing steam.
Prior to second week of August, we are actually expecting the candlestick to close bearish to prove that the support trendline is violated to the downside.
on the other hand, should it close above the support level, upside momentum will likely to take place for next coming week.
However, the fundamental data helps mirror this pair's direction in this coming month

AUGUST IS A NEW ERA

THE NEW ERA OF TRADING AND RISK PROFILING?

Perhaps the above question should be answered by the end of this week.
It seems that people have started showing the pole of trading by basic and really standard fundamental.
so it would be wise to recommend that not to hold position intraday. close out after every fundamental new fade out.

the fact is that, there is no more safe haven for dollar at the moment.
those speculators took the money on the table because they are really quick and fast.genious.

so, it is possible for traders to follow this trading technique ":to be base on fundamental"

the euro, pound and nzd, aus and chf as well as canadian dollar gains on the 'fundamental data published for U.S." which include the retail sales, monthlyt unemployment rate, core retail sales
and import price also drop.. even worse than expected.

instead, the data from europe region showed better than expected ; german prelim gdp, flash gdp, french prelim gdp were the highlights.

however, there is no fundamental daily data is available for the pound, but pound showed rally action 100 points plus. obviously the 'market mover' is the fundamental data of dollar weakness.

its is believed on the previous day or the morning earlier, that traders and investors was waiting for the Fed to take action regarding interest rate and QE program (bailout)... . since the Fed gave the optimistic approaches to recover the economy, by slowing the buying of treasuries, and keep the interest rate at lower benchmark for sometime this year, traders and investor do understand that as a signal showing U.S is in the phase of recovery (because now they are even courage to Stand Alone without bailout for a few month) and next coming should (or at least end of this year) be the exiting step over the recession. during the day, the demand for treasuries and dollar dropped to result from traders and investor start to chase after the Higher yielding investment and currencies , ; as per they said, to avoid their return on the investment in the future affected by the inflation that is seen to increasing.

Fed step to slowing the buying of treasuries are part of the plan to slow the inflation in the possible coming future. But investor acted fast to take advantage of the situation.



we are recovering. but ....bubble.. oh. ooo


THE WORST IS OVER FOR THE ECONOMY?

major stock index in Asia gained with NIkkei up 0.8 percent as the Fed stated on the FOMC meeting that the worst is over for the economy.
what is seen taking place in the market people are trading based on the fundamental data obviously what came out from the Economic Calendar.
: todays data came out that very bearish for the dollar and some bullish point for the higher yielding currency.

bad data for U.S as per the drop in retail sales, increasing in unemployment rate, weak core retails and import prices have weaken the dollar. The U.S dollar is not taken as a Safe Haven currency anymore, since the recovery over world financial is taking place firmly provided the meeting for FOMC is hawkish for the economy. Equity markets are running high, all over the world but the dollar is sliding down. August is a new era.. at least you can say that.
The fact is fundamental trading is easier to see and handled. Data come out, you trade, effect fades you go out....but how would you gauge that..??

THINGS ARE REVERSING; THE FED IS SO NOT GONNA MAKE IT

August132009

the action in forex is happening again. the preference is not the u.s dollar today but other risky currencies. euro pound aus nzd gained. usd gains against yen.

canada has better than expected trade balance.
u.s as well has better than expected trade balance.
however, based on the sentiment,(the old sentiment where the buck got charm), dollar suppose to be choice.but, interestingly to know traders choosed canadian dollar. the pair slides 174 points within approximately 3 1/2 hours.



i am somehow agree with the idea that most big traders and giants only be in the market during peak hours, and after market moved, they get out totally. in other words, they are the 'market movers'. they wait for chances, and when there is, they'll take that opportunity and ride hundreds points before get out.
they are like genius.
we traders then, need to get in their boat so we don't lose all the time.


THE DOLLAR GETS WEAKER?
the sentiment is treasuries, whereby U.S were expected not increase their buying on assets ( bonds) but to increase their interest rate.
since the forecast of economist said Fed will probably keep interest rates at low for sometime now, and the possibility of buying more bonds for bail out.

investors were said to turn bearish on the treasuries as well as the dollars.saying that dollar and treasuries as ;;;safe haven;;; assets is losing their appeal as the recession is easing for the U.S at least and the world.>>> this is considered we are getting back to prefer more foreign higher yielding currencies like pound , australia, new zealand and the euro.
but again, why must these to happen, since yesterday, the equity market drop and even s&p 500 drop below the important benchmark of 1000 level. first what happened since August7 2009, after the U.S NFP whereby the data came out better than expected, trader already changed to bullish on dollar as (EXPECTING THE FED WILL INCREASE INTEREST RATE, YES??? BUT THEY WERE FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY by the economist to not increase the rate to be based on the fundamental where the unemployment is still at low level for the World Reserve currency country.

Where do we keep our money today?
to save them from drowning into the market crash. or is there really going to be the second wave of market crash? as i wrote this, the speculator already got out of the market and closed their position. damn profit they took. gud trade was taken there.
<<<<>> it means
that people tend to seek much more higher yield of investment now (means going risky) rather than stick to safe haven assets like bond and treasuries.and U.S dollar.



as reference on the U.S resident confident.pls have sometime to check this BPGCUSMF:IND Bloomberg PGC US 6Mo Crncy

where will we keep the money today?

Shall we?
let say today's preferred pair to trade is GBPUSD. the fundamental data showed Great britain claimant count change to result worse than previous but somehow better data than expected. the scene behind might be because not so many people up for claim anymore since the economy is not accelerating.however the average hourly earning increase to better than expected to 2.5% from 2.3%. However the unemployment rate than formerly known to increase came up worse than expected to 7.8% from 7.7% expected over 7.6% previously.
overall market is still flat, and yet traders are waiting for the BOE Inflation report to be published on 5:30p.m (MAStime) followe by BOE gov A. King speech.
if it is dovish, pound will be more weaker and hawkish will bring a temporary increase in pound before the U.S FOMC meeting on thursday to determine the strenght or even the weakness of dollar.

whats going on ON The Floor?

hey there traders..

whats goin on on the floor

Trend Changing;
what cud possibly being discussed is: there is a possibility that the equity market to skyrocket.
however, the currency market is reversed in trend whereby for so long traders has been using high yielding currencies to profit previously, and now not so long. noticing the change of favor in currency, starting on August 7 2009, people are buying the dollar in the first place.

stock have been assessed to be overvalued, therefore, the man in the game is now selling those stock
. however this can be determined hypothetically by 2 options, null and alternate.

alternate is: when the dollar strong, the stock go up
Null is : when dollar strong, the stock tumble

these action is primarily referring to the report of U.S NFP on August 7 2009 whereby the result came out better than expected. these however, contrary to the saying of Ben Bernanke the Governor of Federal Reserve bank ; U.S resident will be losing job up to 10% until 2010.
As it is proved the statement was false, investors and most traders (even speculators) have decided to seek for US dollar in and to reject other currencies. dollar may take place again sometime this year as it is forecasted the Equity market will drop due to over value and the rumour that El Nino is coming to destroy the commodity.(what!! destroy..haaa cudnt find another word) El Nino disaster will create a ripple effect to the stock market as bad weather result the favor for stock to slide and stock preference to decline in value.panic usually cured by safe haven.

These sentiment is supported by the decision of Bank of England buying additional treasuries 50 billion pound sterling. directly showing the plan of Mervin A. King to solve the Queen countries economy.
it shows that Englands economy is very weak and vulnerable to deflation.
this is not good for the pound however.weak pound and strong dollar again.

about Mr. Trichet, he seems refusing to make up the QE action, for how it seems that Euro really need that bail as per the behind the economic scene. so in the medium coming term as i'd say, euro is going dive again.

There is this forecast that controversy will lead to some division of currency pairs as to be favored.
as for instant, the commodity currency like CAD is likely to hustle against dollar as the oil price is still there to stand tall. the Crosses as well will likey affected as Yen is gaining power based on its fundamental ,plus emerging currency traders that transfers financing the higher yielding currency with Yen instead of dollar.

I have this feeling that currency market will somehow be at the same condition as in the mid 2008 where dollar is the big fish on the table.nice to grab.while others making new lows

just so everyone kno, this is just my opinion,think i cud share with.
so what do you think? or or or..no no no no.. what just happened was a correction since dollar has BOTTOMED? !@#$%^ damn i'm baddd..